Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 1.272785 1.445069 1.628011 1.836302 2.066434 2.312472 2.594954
2025-01-12 1.002777 1.232583 1.492530 1.806708 2.174401 2.589314 3.091051
2025-01-19 0.792849 1.052928 1.365554 1.765205 2.258343 2.842513 3.582032
2025-01-26 0.663979 0.949797 1.313736 1.803840 2.438376 3.223323 4.257725
2025-02-02 0.555132 0.855242 1.259695 1.832420 2.608463 3.607946 4.974440
2025-02-09 0.459130 0.762438 1.195013 1.838405 2.749143 3.967611 5.691567
2025-02-16 0.383010 0.685247 1.140894 1.851367 2.899424 4.352120 6.473114
2025-02-23 0.307445 0.595063 1.054445 1.806097 2.961735 4.620534 7.117879
2025-03-02 0.239798 0.504343 0.953040 1.724178 2.959967 4.796112 7.644398
2025-03-09 0.198924 0.451979 0.905466 1.720001 3.074027 5.147273 8.447309
2025-03-16 0.161763 0.398387 0.847092 1.689720 3.142323 5.433054 9.171572
2025-03-23 0.141327 0.373720 0.836613 1.739603 3.344709 5.938858 10.260810
2025-03-30 0.111417 0.322737 0.770584 1.686386 3.376303 6.189623 10.993710
2025-04-06 0.090805 0.287272 0.728915 1.672599 3.474776 6.556633 11.937069
2025-04-13 0.072865 0.252938 0.683166 1.644376 3.544109 6.880145 12.831957
2025-04-20 0.063026 0.236995 0.674643 1.689386 3.752201 7.453504 14.173289
2025-04-27 0.053984 0.220436 0.661668 1.723320 3.942262 8.008386 15.516582
2025-05-04 0.045217 0.201616 0.639587 1.734443 4.088477 8.494810 16.770537
2025-05-11 0.038119 0.185550 0.621198 1.751101 4.246829 9.012977 18.108010
2025-05-18 0.030202 0.163079 0.580954 1.711222 4.284599 9.310095 19.070385
2025-05-25 0.022808 0.138659 0.529246 1.635451 4.237942 9.443270 19.743602
2025-06-01 0.018746 0.125933 0.508600 1.633433 4.349824 9.886565 21.004578
2025-06-08 0.014881 0.111749 0.479864 1.605969 4.401833 10.214819 22.067726